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Reference · State of Texas

Texas trade labor costs

What a plumbing, HVAC or electrical tech earns in Texas, what the state adds to payroll, whether labor is taxed, what a license costs, how lien rights work and when the heating and cooling seasons peak — each figure from the agency that sets it, with the date we read it.

  • Wages BLS OEWS May 2025
  • Payroll and licenses state agencies
  • Checked and
Plumbing median
$28.77/h−6.2% vs the U.S.39th of 51
HVAC median
$27.77/h−5.3% vs the U.S.38th of 51
Electrical median
$28.16/h−7.3% vs the U.S.45th of 51
New-employer SUTA
2.70%on the first $9,000
Payroll programs
Noneno paid-leave or disability program found
Sales tax on labor
Dependsrepair and installation on buildings

Pay in Texas

Hourly pay across all industries, May 2025. Half of the workers in each trade earn less than the median and half earn more; one in ten earns less than the 10th percentile. Union and non-union, no self-employed.

Hourly pay, 10th to 90th percentileDrawn to scale: one dollar axis for all three trades

  • PlumbingU.S. median $30.67

    plumbers: 10th percentile $18.40, 25th $22.78, median $28.77, 75th $35.63, 90th $39.37 an hour; U.S. median $30.67.

  • HVACU.S. median $29.33

    HVAC techs: 10th percentile $18.32, 25th $22.50, median $27.77, 75th $33.59, 90th $39.36 an hour; U.S. median $29.33.

  • ElectricalU.S. median $30.38

    electricians: 10th percentile $18.23, 25th $22.44, median $28.16, 75th $34.20, 90th $38.61 an hour; U.S. median $30.38.

  • 25th–75th percentile
  • State median
  • U.S. median
Hourly pay by percentile for plumbers, HVAC techs and electricians in Texas, BLS OEWS May 2025
PercentilePlumbingHVACElectrical
10th$18.40$18.32$18.23
25th$22.78$22.50$22.44
Median$28.77$27.77$28.16
75th$35.63$33.59$34.20
90th$39.37$39.36$38.61
Mean$29.22$28.43$28.50
U.S. median$30.67$29.33$30.38
vs U.S.−6.2%−5.3%−7.3%
Rank39th38th45th
Jobs44,09034,73076,770

Dollars an hour. BLS occupations: Plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters (SOC 47-2152); Heating, air conditioning and refrigeration mechanics and installers (SOC 49-9021); Electricians (SOC 47-2111). “vs U.S.” compares the medians; rank 1 is the highest median of the 50 states and DC. Released May 15, 2026; the next survey is due each spring.

Payroll costs the state adds

What Texas charges an employer on top of wages: unemployment tax, and any paid-leave or disability program funded through payroll, and who must carry workers’ comp. Federal Social Security, Medicare and unemployment tax apply in every state and are already in the calculator. Workers’ comp premiums depend on the class code and the insurer, so the card gives the rules, not a rate.

State unemployment tax (SUTA)

Texas Workforce Commission (TWC), Unemployment Tax

Wage base
$9,000 per employee a year
New-employer rate
2.70%
Construction
Same as other new employers

TWC: “For 2026, the entry-level rate is 2.70% for all groups with no exceptions.” TWC sets each industry group’s entry rate at the higher of the group’s calculated average or 2.70%.

Charged with it

Per tech, a year 2.70% × $9,000 = $243At the new-employer rate, for a plumber paid the state median ($28.77 × 2,080 h = $59,842). The calculator uses the rate alone.

State pages read

Workers’ compensation

Texas Department of Insurance, Division of Workers' Compensation

Who must carry it
Not required for most private employersPrivate employers in Texas may choose whether to carry workers’ comp; it is not required in most cases (Texas Labor Code §406.002), while all governmental entities must have it. An employer without coverage (a nonsubscriber) must notify the Division in writing, tell each new hire whether it has coverage, and post a coverage notice at the workplace (§§406.004, 406.005); in an injury lawsuit a nonsubscriber cannot argue the worker’s contributory negligence, assumed risk or a co-worker’s negligence (§406.033). tcss.legis.texas.gov · tdi.texas.gov
Where to buy it
Private insurersAn employer that elects coverage buys it from a licensed insurance company or qualifies to self-insure (Texas Labor Code §406.003). Texas Mutual Insurance Company, which replaced the former Texas Workers’ Compensation Insurance Fund, operates as a domestic mutual insurer that is not a state agency; by statute it must serve as a competitive force and as the insurer of last resort (Texas Insurance Code §§2054.002, 2054.003, 2054.151). tcss.legis.texas.gov
Owners
If the business carries coverage, its sole proprietor, partners and corporate executive officers are covered as employees unless specifically excluded by an endorsement to the policy (Texas Labor Code §406.097). A sole proprietor, a partner or a corporate officer with at least 25% equity may be excluded even on a public building or construction project that requires coverage. tcss.legis.texas.gov
Construction
On a building or construction contract with the state, a city or another political subdivision, the contractor must certify in writing that it covers every employee on the public project, and each subcontractor must give the general contractor a coverage certificate that is passed on to the government (Texas Labor Code §406.096). A general contractor may agree in writing to cover a subcontractor and its employees, and a covered general contractor that hires a sub with no employees is treated as the sub’s employer (§406.123). tcss.legis.texas.gov

Statute and agency pages read

Paid leave and disability insurance

We found no state paid family and medical leave or temporary disability insurance program funded through payroll in Texas on October 28, 2026. State paid sick leave rules, where they exist, are not covered here.

New-employer rates usually last one to three years — longer in some states (four years in Indiana, four to five in D.C.); then the state assigns your own rate, and your rate notice wins over any figure here. The calculator below uses the new-employer rate where one is clear. Where a state’s own pages could not be read, the card says so and gives the U.S. Labor Department’s figure.

What a shop in Texas needs to charge

The calculator’s example shop — three techs, $120,000 of overhead, a truck each, 10% net profit — with Texas’s median wage for each trade and its unemployment tax filled in. Your own numbers will differ; change them in the calculator below.

Example shopBreak-evenRate, 10% profit
Plumbingwage $28.77$108.60$120.67→ $125
HVACwage $27.77$106.46$118.28→ $120
Electricalwage $28.16$107.29$119.21→ $120

Per billable hour; → is the rate rounded up, as the calculator rounds it. Everything except the wage and the unemployment tax is the national example (BLS, IRS and DOL figures listed on the labor rate calculator).

Change the numbers for your shop

The labor rate calculator, opened on Texas: pick your trade, put in your own crew, pay and overhead, and the rate and break-even redraw as you type.

Your labor rate

Who does the billable work?

Example shop in Texas: 3 techs at the state’s median plumber wage, $120,000 overhead. Change any number or pick another state.

Charge at least Example shop · Texas

Charge at least $120.67 per billable hour; break-even $108.60.

Round up to $125 (+$4.33)

See it drawn to scale
Rate build-upDrawn to scale: every dollar the same height
Rate build-up for the example, drawn to scaleColumn from $0 to $120.67 per billable hour, drawn to scale: wage $49.18, taxes & benefits $12.81, overhead $32.87, truck $13.74, profit 10% $12.07. Break-even line at $108.60. Rounded up to $125.12345$0Labor$61.99Break-even$108.60Your rate$120.67Round up to$125
  1. Wage$59,841.60 ÷ 1,216.8 h$49.18
  2. Taxes & benefits26.05% of pay$12.81
  3. Overhead$120,000 ÷ 3,650.4 h$32.87
  4. Truck$16,719.14 ÷ 1,216.8 h$13.74
  5. Profit 10%of the price$12.07
Break-even
$108.60
Profit per hour
$12.07
Revenue a year
$440,491

$108.60 ÷ (1 − 10%) = $120.67rounded up to $125

Already showing the example.

Price your tasks at $125 an hourOpens the price book builder with this rate.

Billable hours
1,216.8per tech a year
Loaded wage
$36.26per paid hour
Labor
$61.99per billable hour
Overhead
$32.87per billable hour
Truck
$13.74per billable hour
Labor burden
26.05%over gross pay

What moves your rate

  • Every billable hour sold under $108.60 loses money.
  • At 70% billable instead of 65%, break-even drops to $100.84, $7.76 an hour less.
  • Cut $10,000 of overhead a year and break-even drops $2.74 an hour, to $105.86.
Show the math
  1. Worked hours2,080 h − 26 days × 8 h = 1,872 h
  2. Billable hours per tech1,872 h × 65% = 1,216.8 h
  3. Gross pay per tech$28.77 × 2,080 h = $59,841.60
  4. Employer taxes and comp$3,710.18 SS + $867.70 Medicare + $42.00 FUTA + $243.00 SUTA + $1,597.77 comp = $6,460.65
  5. Benefits$59,841.60 × 15.25% = $9,125.84
  6. Labor per billable hour$75,428.10 ÷ 1,216.8 h = $61.99
  7. Overhead per billable hour$120,000 ÷ (3 × 1,216.8 h) = $32.87
  8. Truck per billable hour$16,719.14 ÷ 1,216.8 h = $13.74
  9. Break-even$61.99 + $32.87 + $13.74 = $108.60
  10. Rate at 10% profit$108.60 ÷ (1 − 10%) = $120.67

Change the numbers

State and trade
Trade

Fills the wage and state unemployment tax (SUTA). Workers’ comp and everything else stay as they are.

Filled for Texas3 figures
Wage Plumbing
$28.77/hr
Texas median for plumbers · BLS OEWS May 2025
SUTA rate New employer
2.70%
New-employer rate, construction included (TWC, 2026) · DOL Significant Provisions, July 2026
SUTA wage base Per tech
$9,000
Texas · DOL Significant Provisions, July 2026

Your own rate notice wins. These are new-employer rates: after one to three years the state sets your own, and construction employers often pay a different rate.

Texas: pay, payroll taxes and licensesSee all 50 states and DC
Texas: the fine print

TWC: “For 2026, the entry-level rate is 2.70% for all groups with no exceptions.” TWC sets each industry group’s entry rate at the higher of the group’s calculated average or 2.70%.

Crew and pay

People who bill hours. Office staff go in overhead.

Average base pay. Filled: Texas median for plumbers, BLS OEWS May 2025.

Hours and time off2,080 h · 26 days off

40 hours × 52 weeks = 2,080.

Holidays, vacation and sick days, 8 h each. Example: 8 + 11 + 7 (BLS).

Optional. Paid at 1.5 × the wage. Leave 0 if none.

Billable time

Share of worked hours that ends up on invoices. Published figures run from 30% to 65%.

Billable hours1,216.8 hper tech · 3,650.4 h for the shop
Payroll taxes and benefits+26.05% of pay

Filled: Texas new-employer rate, DOL Significant Provisions, July 2026. Your notice wins.

Pay per tech the rate applies to. Filled: Texas, DOL Significant Provisions, July 2026.

Use the rate on your policy. Example: BLS construction average.

Health, retirement and other benefits. Example: BLS construction average.

Loaded wage$36.26per paid hour · burden 26.05%

Included automatically (IRS, tax year 2026): Social Security 6.2% of pay up to $184,500, Medicare 1.45%, federal unemployment (FUTA) 0.6% of the first $7,000.

Shop costs

An example figure. Everything except field pay and trucks — split it in the worksheet below.

Payments, fuel, insurance and upkeep. Enter 0 if trucks are already in overhead.

Profit

Profit as a share of the price, not a markup on cost.

Your rate: $120.67 per billable hour · break-even $108.60. Back to the result

Sales tax on your work

What Texas’s tax agency says about repair and installation labor on buildings and the parts and fixtures that go into them. This is what the agency’s pages say, not tax advice.

Labor
DependsLabor to repair, remodel or restore residential property isn’t taxable; the total charge to repair or remodel nonresidential property is.Labor to build new structures isn’t taxed. Nonresidential repair is taxed on the total except separately stated permit fees. Scheduled, periodic maintenance isn’t taxed, but the parts installed are.
Materials
Depends on the job or contractResidential repair and new construction: under a lump-sum contract the contractor pays tax on materials and charges no tax; under a separated contract it buys on a resale certificate and collects tax on the materials, charged at no less than cost. Nonresidential repair: tax on the total charge.

Read October 24, 2026 on the agency pages listed under Sources. All 50 states and DC side by side.

Licenses and state fees

The license a shop needs from the state to contract for each trade, the board that issues it and the fees on its own schedule. Cities and counties can add their own licenses, registrations and permit fees; exam vendors and fingerprinting may charge more.

Plumbing

State license

Texas State Board of Plumbing Examiners (TSBPE)

Master Plumber license with Responsible Master Plumber (RMP) designation

A Responsible Master Plumber is a licensed Master Plumber whose license is used by one plumbing company to offer and perform plumbing work; the RMP pulls permits and supervises work under contracts secured under the license (TSBPE rules).

FeeAmount
Master Plumber exam processing fee (payable to TSBPE)per exam application$25
Master Plumber exam fee (payable to Pearson VUE)per exam$128.50
Master Plumber initial license feeone-time (license renews annually)$75
Responsible Master Plumber designation - initial applicationone-time (not charged if you add the designation during your renewal period)$225
Master Plumber renewal feeper year$75
Responsible Master Plumber renewal feeper year$300

The TSBPE web pages show these amounts: exam $25 to the board plus $128.50 to Pearson VUE, and a $225 initial RMP application. The TSBPE rules (March 2026) list the Master Plumber examination at $175 and an initial Responsible Master Plumber license fee of $300, so confirm the amount with the board. If you add the RMP designation during your renewal period (it opens 90 days before your license expires), you pay only the $300 renewal fee, not the $225 application fee. RMPs must carry at least $300,000 commercial liability insurance. Fingerprinting fee extra.

Keeping the license

Renewal
Texas State Board of Plumbing Examiners licenses, registrations and endorsements (including the Master Plumber license and the Responsible Master Plumber designation) renew every year by the holder’s annual expiration date; late renewals carry late fees and an unlicensed period. tsbpe.texas.gov
Continuing ed.
TSBPE licensees must complete at least 6 hours of continuing professional education in the 12 months before each annual renewal; medical gas endorsement holders need 2 more hours of medical gas CPE. tsbpe.texas.gov
Reciprocity
TSBPE reciprocates plumbing licenses (journeyman and master) only with Louisiana (applicant must also hold a Louisiana natural gas fitter license) and Arkansas (Arkansas license held 4 years); others must take the Texas exam. tsbpe.texas.gov

Sources read

HVAC and Electrical

State license

Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation (TDLR)

  • HVAC Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Contractor License (Class A or Class B, with endorsement)ACR contractors must hold a TDLR license and maintain commercial general liability insurance; a licensee with an insurance waiver cannot perform or offer to perform ACR contracting under the license with the general public.
  • Electrical Electrical Contractor License (must employ a licensed Master Electrician)Anyone who performs, or offers to perform, non-exempt electrical work in Texas must be licensed and perform that work through a licensed electrical contractor; an electrical contractor must employ a licensed Master Electrician.
FeeAmount
HVAC · Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Contractor License (Class A or Class B, with endorsement)
ACR contractor license application fee1 year$115
ACR licensing examination fee(Class A, as stated for a Class B to A upgrade)per exam$74
ACR contractor license renewal feeper year$65
Electrical · Electrical Contractor License (must employ a licensed Master Electrician)
Electrical contractor license application fee(non-refundable)1 year$110
Electrical contractor license renewal fee (non-refundable)per year$110

HVAC Class A: any size unit; Class B: cooling up to 25 tons and heating up to 1.5 million BTU/hour. Late renewal is 1.5x (90 days or less) or 2x the renewal fee.

Electrical No separate exam for the contractor license; the Master Electrician of record is licensed by exam. Contractors must carry $300,000 per occurrence / $600,000 aggregate liability insurance. Late renewal $165 or $220 depending on how long expired.

Keeping the license

Renewal
HVACTDLR air conditioning and refrigeration contractor licenses are valid for 1 year from the date of issue and must be renewed each year. tdlr.texas.govElectricalTDLR electrician licenses and electrical contractor licenses are valid for one year from the date of issuance and must be renewed annually. tdlr.texas.gov
Continuing ed.
HVACTo renew, a TDLR air conditioning and refrigeration contractor must complete 8 hours of approved continuing education each year, including 1 hour on Texas state law and rules, before the license expires. tdlr.texas.govElectricalMaster, journeyman and other individual electrician licensees must complete 4 hours of continuing education before each annual renewal, covering the NEC, the Texas electrician law (Occupations Code ch. 1305), TDLR rules (16 TAC ch. 73) and NFPA 70E safety; electrical contractor licenses themselves need no CE. tdlr.texas.gov
Reciprocity
HVACTDLR has air conditioning and refrigeration contractor reciprocity agreements only with Georgia (Class II Conditioned Air unrestricted license, for a Texas Class A environmental license) and South Carolina (set license equivalencies); the out-of-state license must have been held at least one year. tdlr.texas.govElectricalTDLR has master electrician reciprocity with Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio and Tennessee, and journeyman electrician reciprocity with Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Iowa, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Wyoming; no other license types are covered. tdlr.texas.gov

Sources read

Beyond the trade license

Contractor registration, bond and insurance the state asks of a trade shop

Registration
Texas has no statewide general, residential or home-improvement contractor license or registration; the trade licenses themselves (TSBPE for plumbing, TDLR for air conditioning and refrigeration contractors and electrical contractors) are the state requirement. Cities such as Dallas run their own contractor registration for permits. tdlr.texas.gov · tsbpe.texas.gov · dallas.gov
Bond
No state surety bond is required for the Responsible Master Plumber designation, the TDLR air conditioning and refrigeration contractor license or the TDLR electrical contractor license; the state requires liability insurance instead. tsbpe.texas.gov · tdlr.texas.gov
Insurance
$300,000A Responsible Master Plumber must carry at least $300,000 of commercial general liability insurance (TSBPE). TDLR electrical contractors must carry $300,000 per occurrence, $600,000 aggregate and $300,000 products/completed operations; air conditioning and refrigeration contractors need the same for a Class A license and $100,000 / $200,000 / $100,000 for a Class B license. tsbpe.texas.gov · tdlr.texas.gov

Board and statute pages read

State or city license?

State and local Who licenses the trades in Texas

Plumbing, air conditioning and electrical licenses are issued by the state and are valid statewide, but cities may still license electricians who do not hold a state license; under Occupations Code §1305.201 a city may not charge certain fees to, or require a local exam of, a state-licensed electrician. Cities also register contractors for permits: Dallas requires electrical contractors to register in person (with $300,000 liability insurance) and keeps plumbing and mechanical contractor registrations. tdlr.texas.gov · dallas.gov

State and city pages read

What Texas law says about lien rights on private jobs — the notices, the deadline to file and the deadline to sue — and whether a statute sets payment deadlines or caps retainage. Read from the statute itself; it is not legal advice.

Mechanic’s lien

Tex. Prop. Code ch. 53Property Code Chapter 53. Mechanic’s, Contractor’s, or Materialman’s Lien

You, hired by the owner
Before the owner signs a residential construction contract, the original contractor must deliver the “Know Your Rights and Responsibilities Under the Law” disclosure statement (Tex. Prop. Code § 53.255). On commercial jobs an original contractor gives no notice before filing; every claimant must send the owner a copy of its lien affidavit within 5 days after filing (§ 53.055). tcss.legis.texas.gov
Subs and suppliers
Notice requiredA sub or supplier must send the owner and the original contractor a “Notice of Claim for Unpaid Labor or Materials” by the 15th day of the third month after each month the unpaid work or materials were provided (second month on residential projects), or its lien is invalid (§ 53.056). Unpaid retainage not covered by that notice needs a separate notice within 30 days after the sub’s contract is completed, terminated or abandoned (§ 53.057). tcss.legis.texas.gov
File the lien
4 monthsAn original contractor files the lien affidavit with the county clerk by the 15th day of the fourth month after the month its work was completed, terminated or abandoned (third month on residential projects) (§ 53.052(a)). Subs and suppliers have until the 15th day of the fourth month (third month on residential) after the month they last furnished labor or materials. tcss.legis.texas.gov
Enforce it
1 yearSue to foreclose no later than one year after the last day you could have filed the lien affidavit under § 53.052; a written agreement with the record owner, recorded in the county, can extend this to two years after the affidavit was filed (§ 53.158). tcss.legis.texas.gov
Homes
To fix a lien on a homestead, the owner (both spouses if married) and the contractor must sign a written contract before any work or materials are furnished, and the contract must be filed with the county clerk (§ 53.254); a homestead lien affidavit must carry the bold notice “THIS IS NOT A LIEN”. Residential projects also have shorter notice and filing deadlines and require the § 53.255 disclosure statement. tcss.legis.texas.gov

Statutes read

Payment deadlines and retainage

Private jobs (public contracts have their own rules)

Prompt payment
Statute sets deadlinesOn private jobs (Tex. Prop. Code ch. 28), the owner must pay a contractor’s written payment request within 35 days after receiving it, and a contractor must pay its subs their share within 7 days after receiving the owner’s payment (§ 28.002); unpaid amounts bear 1.5% interest per month (§ 28.004). A single-family residence contract may push the owner’s deadline out to before the 61st day (§ 28.006(b)). tcss.legis.texas.gov
Retainage
Texas sets no cap on contractual retainage, but the owner must reserve 10% of the contract price (or of the value of work done) during the job and for 30 days after the work is completed (§ 53.101); subs and suppliers who gave their notices and file a lien affidavit within 30 days after completion have a lien on these reserved funds (§ 53.103). tcss.legis.texas.gov

Statutes read

Heating and cooling season in Texas

Degree days, NOAA’s index of the energy it takes to heat or cool a building: each degree a day’s mean temperature falls below 65 °F is one heating degree day, each degree above is one cooling degree day. Thirty-year normals for Houston Intercontinental, month by month.

Heating degree days
1,266
Cooling degree days
3,288
Nights ≤ 32 °F
10
Days ≥ 90 °F
111
Normal heating and cooling degree days (base 65 °F) and freezing nights by month at Houston Intercontinental, NOAA 1991–2020 normals
MonthHeatingCoolingNights ≤ 32 °F
Jan366174
Feb236322
Mar123851
Apr31179–
May1384–
Jun0540–
Jul0623–
Aug0625–
Sep0465–
Oct27239–
Nov158701
Dec325293

Cooling carries the load at Houston Intercontinental: 3,288 cooling degree days a year against 1,266 heating degree days, peaking in August (625).

The lightest months for heating and cooling together are March and April (208 and 210 degree days).

Nights at or below 32 °F: about 10 a year. Days reaching 90 °F: about 111 a year, the most in July.

Weighted by where Texas’s people live, NOAA’s statewide normals (1981–2010) are 1,911 heating and 2,659 cooling degree days — 46th for heating and 3rd for cooling among the 48 contiguous states (the contiguous U.S.: 4,332 and 1,272).

Station: Houston Intercontinental (USW00012960), NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 — station file; statewide figures: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Bars share one scale: the longest is 625 degree days. Read .

Sources

Each page opened on the date shown. License, registration, lien and workers’ comp sources are linked beside each fact above. Figures change: the agency’s own page wins over this one.

  1. May 2025 State Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates (state file oesm25st)U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · read October 28, 2026
  2. Occupational Employment and Wages — May 2025 (news release USDL-26-0725, May 15, 2026)U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · read October 28, 2026
  3. Public Data API (national OEWS series for the three occupations)U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · read October 28, 2026
  4. Unemployment insurance tax rates (twc.texas.gov)Texas Workforce Commission (TWC), Unemployment Tax · read October 28, 2026
  5. Significant Provisions of State Unemployment Insurance Laws, Effective July 2026U.S. Department of Labor, Office of Unemployment Insurance · read October 28, 2026
  6. Publication 94-116, Real Property Repair and RemodelingTexas Comptroller of Public Accounts · 03/2007 · read October 24, 2026
  7. Publication 96-259, Taxable ServicesTexas Comptroller of Public Accounts · 01/2026 · read October 24, 2026
  8. Tex. Prop. Code ch. 53 — Property Code Chapter 53. Mechanic’s, Contractor’s, or Materialman’s LienOfficial state code · read November 4, 2026
  9. Workers’ compensation coverage requirementsTexas Department of Insurance, Division of Workers' Compensation · read November 4, 2026
  10. U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020, Houston Intercontinental (USW00012960)NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information · read November 4, 2026
  11. Population-weighted daily heating and cooling degree day normals, 1981–2010 (states and CONUS)NOAA National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center · read November 4, 2026